Ozark Magic and Folklore Revisited:

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In the days of yore, subsistence based societies were keen observers of the weather. Folk sages were interested in signs that could ascertain the coming mood of Old Man Winter. Today we scoff at these notions, -the product of modern heating, full refrigerators and book “larnin.” This winter from the safety of your home, put a few of these to the test and let us know how you come out. (I challenge Mrs. Tresea Davis’ history club to try some of these and report back to us!)

Many Ozarkers maintain winter weather is often predicted by the corresponding heat and misery of summer. Often the phrase “hotter the summer, colder the winter” is repeated around hayfields and other places of abject misery, half as a promise of relief, half as a threat. The truth in forecasting in this manner is a tad more nuanced. By keeping track of the days above 100 degrees in July, you will have the same number of days 20 below zero in January. Some say to tabulate the sunny days in July and August, that number will be the freezing cold days in winter. The number of foggy days in August should also be tracked, as they equal the number of snows to expect.

Much care is given in examining the natural world for winter and snow signs. The thickness of fur and feathers on game and domestic animals as well as the thickness of cornshucks, onion skins, pumpkin rinds and a host of other things are seen as outright proof of upcoming mildness or extreme cold. Trees bearing dense foliage or more brightly colored than usual along with bumper crops of acorns and walnuts are sure signs of a hard winter. Split persimmon seeds bearing spoons indicate the future need of snow shovels. There is some debate regarding the height of a hornet’s nest. One camp insists hornets nesting low to the ground are a sure sign of severe weather, while those further aloft mean it will be mild. Contrarian belief that hornets make their nests farther off the ground as a safeguard against heavy snow has its devotees too. Having seen hornet’s nests this season, both high and low gives me pause. Many hunters rely on the breast bone of a freshly killed fall goose. “If the bone is thin and more or less transparent the winter will be mild, should the bone be thick and opaque expect the winter to be severe.” Given geese may live a decade or more, one should expect some diversity in bone structure in flocks. Any prediction of weather in this manner can be chalked up to the mystical powers of divination -guiding shot to the forecast-appropriate bird.

Expect snowfall when firewood cracks and pops, the old hunters would say the fire is “stomping snow.” When woodpeckers start on the bottom of a tree and work clear to the top or when a cat sits with its tail to the fire, expect the temperature to drop. If the moon rises further north than in winters past expect the season to be much colder.

The dates around the first snowfall are used to forecast the remainder of winter with different and sometimes opposing rules. Some believe the age of the moon on the first snow will correspond to the number of snows before spring, while others contend the number of days the snow lay on the ground is more accurate. Apparently the waxing or waning of the moon has no bearing on the matter. An entirely different rationale maintains the number of snows can be calculated from the month and date of the first snow. In order to mathematically contrive this, one must multiply the number of the month and the date. In cases where snow occurs before the 15th of December it must be doubled. Per this math, a snow on December 1st renders out twenty-four separate snows before spring. That sounds perfectly reasonable. However, if the first snow should occur on November 16th then the winter would yield a whopping 176 snowfalls! Talk about a wonderland.

Perhaps some of these old time notions will bear out, my guess is most won’t. While today, we obsess over weather the same as always, we've traded in counting foggy days for satellite and doppler technology. Other things don't change, we still blow and brag about snow depth and unseemly temperatures to anyone fool enough to listen. Score is kept by having the lowest temperature or the most snow, often emphasized by recounting cords of wood burned, hay bales fed or school days missed. On Dry Creek this winter we’re expecting a 3 cord, 160 bale, 4 day off winter…at least that’s what my goose bone said!

Got an old time superstition or weather prediction to share? Drop us a line at news@marshfieldmail.com